An Oily Mess
Wednesday, March 7, 2012 at 7:05AM Oil is currently $120 a barrel and likely according to all sources, to go up in the coming year.
If you are in the UK, you’re under 25, have a reasonable job and you want to drive you can probably just afford to buy a second hand car. The idea of a 25 year old with a reasonable job is already narrowing the percentage considerably, youth unemployment is currently at an all time high. However even if they are able to buy an old clunker, doubtful they’ll be able to afford the insurance. When I tried to get my then 17 year old son added to my insurance policy the quote I was given was £4,800 for a year. Guess what, my son can’t drive. He has no interest in learning, he lives in a city, uses a bike or public transport.
It is becoming increasingly clear to motor manufacturers that a generation is growing up with little interest in cars and even less prospect of joining the masses ranks of car drivers. Obviously this is in the West, countries like India and China are in a very different situation with young people very enthusiastic to become car owners and drivers.
But if a generation grows up who can’t drive and don’t want to learn, the whole car industry and it’s complex associated resources will be very powerfully affected.
On the other hand, the more the oil price goes up, the more energy will be put into developing and manufacturing electric vehicles. That has to be balanced against the fact that the oil price affects pretty much everything, cost of food, transport, medicine, everything really. We are all addicted, cold turkey isn’t going to be fun.
Reader Comments (9)
A very good blog, Robert. This is something that has been discussed among cyclists for a little while now. It is being referred to by various commenters as 'peak car'. I recall a New Statesman article from last year, and they reached a similar conclusion to yourself: the decline - in the UK - is being driven (no pun intended) by increasing numbers of young people having no interest in the expense and inconvenience of owning a car.
Ah, found the article: goo.gl/wjbHc
Not driving is an option in cities, but it certainly isn't in rural parts of the country. Robert lives in The Cotswolds - fancy relying on public transport, Bob? Maybe the rural population will lead the electric revolution, because they have no choice.
It'll be interesting to see how this new car-less generation gets on as they get older. For instance, when they start working and then later get together and have kids (assuming they finally do both of those!), either one partner will be forced to stay at home (but then how do you afford to live on one wage?) or both partners battle with managing nursery drop offs and the school run at each end of their day.
Unless the school/nursery is on your doorstep, car use becomes essential as public transport or cycling/walking becomes too time consuming and awkward.
I work from home and walk my son to school (1.5 miles), but on days when I also have to drop my daughter at nursery (1.5 miles in the _other_ direction), I *have* to use the car, otherwise it is more or less impossible to do and be back at my desk on time. And I don't even have a commute to do...
This is exactly where we need to focus, cheap urban (as in 40-70 mile range) electric vehicles, unfortunately cost is prohibitive to both young & old alike, the cheapest not quite noddy car is tyhe practical but comfortless partially exposed to the elements as yet unreleased "twizy" ..which a kid might be able to get on with till you hit insurance & mates laughing them down, combined with the twizy (upper echelon model) only being able to achieve around 43mph with a (from memory) 20 second "boost" .
If Mercedes / Smart "for-2" had got "smart" earlier (it's a proven popular design with youngsters & the fuel concsious) then perhaps we'd be half way to turning ev acceptance round within youth.
but I think we've missed the boat & dropped a clanger here.
The mindset now will be eroded but only if ev is made affordable (not older folks able to splash 25k & reap the government incentive) we are already on the path to toddling OFF the planet, we need to get those just starting to drive (for jobs further afield, apprenticeships etc, & general access out of the countryside to the towns or industrial parks, public transport outside of cities is dire, everyone needs basic motorbility (not arriving wet & knackered having cycled 12 miles in searing heat or depths of winter gloom).
How much more costly is it for the likes of an already expensive in it's class smart car (well proven design, old moulds & chassis designs that have already paid for themselves to grab this existing market with their tinkered with EV!? ..why is it so slow to come out for public use beyond a few citi car pr exercises such as in Canada!? & why does it command an anticipated £23k for a 2 seater which has been around for a good 15 years
An electric bike (good one) is in excess of £1000 & doesn't allow a youngster to break the chains from home & give a sense of independence, but does allow a modicum of affordable range to get to work, or study, but then what!?
Problem after problem is piling up within the global economy with no brave step to kick start transport beyond a lucky, invariably older few.
writing is on the wall as to what needs to happen & create a model (& export ) for other countries to join in, however just like the renewables market we are left pissing in the wind & importing someone else's product from way outside of the E.U.
I know the likes of the Norwegian / Swedish "Buddy" isn't it but why design from the ground up when we have viable alternatives already out there (within Europe)), ..adapt, survive, & give everyone a shot at shedding the petroleum habit, after all the more units you build the lower the cost price & increased likelihood of uptake from the public who clearly adore the existing smart offering in it's various forms since the 90's / smart 4-2 since early 2004!?
Snazzy looking can be after market (& a whole different "profitable" business platform).
we need cost effective within both price point (youngest ain't rich) & mileage returns, insurance for an e.v. & a youngster is an unknown qty, with something akin to the smart, insurers are already aware & have experience of the vehicles, another advantage over newly styled, newly released, premium low production number vehicles only just hitting the market.
I don't quite follow the rant. Is this about children growing up not wanting to or unable to drive because of the economics... or is this about oil prices causing a disruption as in un-enabling the next generation to purchase and drive cars?
I know because it is a rant that the point can become muddled.
Peace
Oil was consider as the water of a car. Car needs it in order to operate and to be manipulated.
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No wonder the insurance quote was so high if your son can't drive :-)
(Said with tongue firmly in cheek.)
Oil today (Brent) $108.12 a barrel. Just saying. Sometimes "all sources" can be full of it too.